Have been making pots full of paper prices, the most worried about what? Follow the trend of paper prices appear two extreme views!

Time：2017-09-20 17:09:40

Lead: the price surge continues to spread, carton factory and end users in paper enterprises complain incessantly, earn pours at the same time, the same is also worried about the shortage of raw material supply, the shortage of the whole industry chain seems to have become the common problems faced by the supply of raw materials. In addition, according to smart finance analysis, the price of raw materials of the paper continues to rise, rising demand, reduced production, inventory up factors, recently the paper plunges almost impossible.

According to the choice data terminal to provide paper factory price weekly, nine dragons 100g corrugated Jiangsu factory price by 3200 yuan / ton rose in the three quarter of last year to early September close to 6000 yuan / ton, almost doubled; Nine Dragons 250g liner in Guangdong area by the three quarter of last year, the ex factory price is about 3600 yuan / ton rose to close 6000 yuan / ton.

A paper enterprises listed company secretaries of Tencent Finance said, an important factor in rising prices of imported waste paper base paper is shut down, the domestic waste paper demand soared, but the supply of waste has been in a steady state, the imbalance between supply and demand lead to waste paper raw material prices, the price of paper rose to promote the.

1. behind the rise in paper prices: raw materials prices continued to rise

In the strict control of foreign garbage immigration policy guidance, imports of waste paper began to reduce in 2012. Official data show that in 2015, the domestic purchase of imported waste paper enterprises from 271 to 193, by 2016, waste paper imports of 28 million 500 thousand tons of raw materials, domestic waste paper 50 million tons, imports of waste paper fell to 34%.

Choice data terminal display, began in May 2016, the number of imports of waste paper for six consecutive months year-on-year decline in May last year reached 21.30%, and in July this year, fifteen months, eleven months down.

This also led directly to the waste paper raw material prices. The price of all goods in Jiangsu yellow paper, by 1200 yuan / ton in the three quarter of last year rose to the current 2500 yuan / ton, the price of all goods in Guangdong yellow paper from 1600 yuan / ton rose to 2600 yuan / ton, Shandong area from 1500 yuan / ton rose to 2100 yuan / ton. In some areas reached a maximum of 2700 yuan / ton.

"To packaging paper, for example, waste paper accounted for more than 80% of the entire raw material, and some enterprises 90% of raw materials, or even waste paper."." The maximum for the corrugated fluctuations, a paper enterprises listed company secretaries said that the current corrugated top three market share of around 40%, concentration is not very high, but small and medium-sized factory of raw material prices are more sensitive, the price is more obvious. In addition, the environmental protection upgrade makes the small and medium-sized factories shut down, and also causes the corrugated paper to change more and more in the supply and demand aspect.

The number of Listed Companies in the semi annual report that the environmental protection, tighter policy, will lead to small and medium-sized factory further eliminated, out of the market, which will improve the industry concentration, positive leading paper prices, new capacity will mainly come from the manufacturers, the domestic paper-making enterprises will usher in the price surge, the product price increases, the industry clearly signs of recovery. The boom will continue to improve.

2. big enterprises in the price of income considerable, the most worried about the supply of paper raw materials

Although the downstream and small factory but the price of paper rose to complain incessantly, and environmental upgrades, really benefited from large scale paper enterprises. The first half of the year, Chenming Paper operating income and non deduction net profit growth of 29.63% and 118.83% respectively, Bo paper revenue and non deduction net profit growth of 22.06% and 1448.49%, Sun Paper grew by 32.58% and 150.53%, shanyingzhiye grew by 38.10% and 587.92%. Nine Dragons Paper revenue and net profit grew by 9.82% and 474.72%, respectively. Chenming, sun and Shanying paper business gross margin was increased by 4.83%, 6.61% and 6.43%.

Performance promotion directly brought about the take-off of stock prices, since the second half of last year, the above-mentioned listed paper prices rose at about 2-3 times.

"As the upstream raw material price increases, we can move downstream, and the current gross margin is within the range of our estimate."." Another listed paper enterprise insiders to Tencent Finance said, not with the customer general company signed a long-term contract, the contract also has a price adjustment mechanism, including long-term customers, will also make the price adjustment according to the market situation.

The source believes that, due to price transmission, the most worried about large paper prices is not raw material prices. Take the most expensive state waste as an example. Now the question is whether we can maintain the supply of raw materials. Once the shortage of raw materials occurs, the supply orders for long-term cooperative customers will be given priority.

In the base paper manufacturers have increased prices under pressure, the downstream manufacturers also frequently raise prices, self-help, a few days up. In September 10th and 12, including the coastal forest Packaging Co. Ltd., Zhejiang large packaging Co., Ltd., Suzhou Hengshun Plastic Rubber Co., Ltd. Cixi Fushan occupation Ningbo Fenghua nock paper products Co., Ltd. dozens of paper packaging enterprises, product prices 8%-10%.

"Upstream prices rise, everyone has seen, and the layers of conduction to the downstream is inevitable, after all, no one will do a loss of business."." These people said.

3. paper prices will be higher or lower? There are two extreme views now!

(1) financial analysis: rising demand, reduced production, restocking, or further promotion of paper prices;

Smart financial analysts said, the future, rising demand, reduced production and restocking of these three factors will promote the further strengthening of the price of paper.

In August this year, Zhejiang and Shandong two provinces environmental supervision to paper production fell to the pattern of supply and demand further tightening, and supervision in the winter heating period to carry out environmental protection or to make Hebei and Shandong two provinces further cuts.

At the same time, consider